Steve Smith sends a message to Jarrett

Carolina, Football, General | No Comments
-posted November 1, 2007 at 8:08 am

Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith had a little message for first round pick Dwayne Jarrett yesterday:

As Jarrett was talking, receiver Steve Smith, who hasn’t been talking to the media recently, walked out to his own locker and talked to Jarrett.

“Instead of talking to the media, why don’t you go watch some film?’’ Smith said.

Jarrett gave a slight smile and kept talking to the media.

Smith, followed up in a very strong tone.

“Seriously,’’ Smith said.

Ulracher and the Bears defensive struggles

Chicago, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 26, 2007 at 12:15 pm

It’s hard not to think that Brian Ulracher is playing hurt after reading this, from PFW:

With the Bears’ season quickly approaching the halfway point, it’s become hard to ignore the change in MLB Brian Urlacher — both on and off the field. When he’s on his game — as was definitely the case in his 12-tackle performance in the Bears’ stirring come-from-behind Week Seven win over the Eagles — Urlacher remains one of the game’s elite players at his position. But for whatever the reason, there have been other times this season (the loss to the Vikings sticks out) when Urlacher’s play has been noticeably subpar. Daily team observers don’t believe the decline in his play is due to any drop-off in his speed or quickness, but rather the problems he has had taking on blocks. Urlacher’s forte has always been his rare athleticism that essentially has allowed him to run around blocks to make plays, but that skill hasn’t been on display nearly as much this season. Urlacher has been sitting out Friday practices the entire season for undisclosed reasons, and it’s been rumored for a while now that a back injury might be responsible for the weekly shutdown. But our sources maintain that, if an injury was really bothering him, he would be missing practices earlier in the week, which hasn’t been the case. As for getting any explanations from Urlacher himself, the local media hasn’t had much luck lately, as the six-time Pro Bowler has become increasingly curt and stand-offish. The consensus among our sources is that, considering the overwhelmingly positive press he has received over the years, his recent behavior has been disappointing to say the least.

Broncos revamp defense during bye week

Denver, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 22, 2007 at 9:24 am

From the ‘information we could have used before we made our picks department’ the Broncos spent their off week switching their defense back to the system they used last season.

As reported by Fox Sports:

“We just don’t have the personnel to play it,” said one Denver insider.

Denver entered last nights game as the 32nd ranked defense against the run and 27th in points allowed.

They gave up 4.6 yards a carry to the Steelers and 28 points overall, but on a whole they were a much better unit.

Marion Barber and Julius Jones

Dallas, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 18, 2007 at 5:35 pm

Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders breaks down Marion Barber and Julius Jones in this week’s mailbag.

The idea that Barber gets a benefit from playing more later in the game was somewhat true last year, but it isn’t true this year. This year, Barber is better than Jones in every situation. In addition, this year, their usage is much more similar.

FO has long supported Barber over Jones by way of their extensive statistical evidence.

And when statistical evidence ends, this memorable run picks up.

USF Football opus

College Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 18, 2007 at 5:27 pm

The final installment of my USF Football roundup has been posted over at the sportsfrog.

As mentioned two days ago, part one was on the history of USF football, part two was on the 2007 USF football team, and part three was on tonight’s game vs Rutgers.

Michael Bennett in Tampa and Earnest Graham

Tampa Bay, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 18, 2007 at 2:45 pm

With Michael Bennett moving to Tampa for what is reportedly a 6th and 7th round pick, fantasy owners might be quick to pick Bennett up thinking he’s going to get a chance to be the go to guy with the Bucs.

But if anything, I think this addition just solidifies Earnest Graham’s role with the team. Bennett fits in well as the third down and/or long yardage situation guy.

I’m actually a little high on Graham to perform well for the rest of the season. He’s been in this offense for so many years, and has good compliment back now in Bennett. Graham’s not much more than a 15-20 carry guy, but he’ll get the short yardage and goalline work and he’s a little shiftier than most realize.

And don’t forget that Bennett has a lot of offense to learn. Graham will be the guy until Michael is comfortable.

Chris McAlister’s injury impact on Ravens defense

Baltimore, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 17, 2007 at 5:41 pm

With the Ravens announcing Chris McAlister could miss the next three weeks, I immediately went to Football Outsiders’ defense rankings to see how this will affect Baltimore’s defense.

As I expected, the Ravens pass defense has not been as good this year as it was

Koren Robinson is back

Green Bay, Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 17, 2007 at 3:25 pm

The Packers already deep WR corps is getting deeper.

The NFL has reinstated Koren Robinson.

The Packers have a buy this week, so he’ll have some extra time to get back into the flow of things. I’d expect to see him returning kicks immediately, as he did last season.

USF Football History

College Football, General | No Comments
-posted October 17, 2007 at 10:30 am

In anticipation of this week’s Thursday night game at Rutgers, I’m doing a three part series on USF Football over on the sportsfrog.

Part one - a quick history of USF Football.

NFL | 2007 | Week Three Picks

Football, General | No Comments
-posted September 22, 2007 at 6:52 pm

ARZ at BAL - Ravens
Anquan Boldin should have a good game against the Ravens secondary, but the Cards coming east with an underwhelming defense doesn’t sound good to me. Jon Ogden and Trevor Pryce are out for the Ravens, so anything can happen.

BUF at NE - Pats
The line on this game is close to 17 points. Wake me when Trent Edwards is getting snaps.

DET at PHI - Lions
One of these teams is 2-0, the other is 0-2. The spread favors one team by 5 points, but its the 0-2 team. How’s that work? The Eagles defense looks like its up against a wall with key injuries in their secondary. They are a different unit without Lito Sheppard and if Brian Dawkins is out too, the Lions can go 4 wide all day long. McNabb’s accuracy has been awful, likely a result of poor footwork stemming from his knee injury.

IND at HOU - Colts
Houston is a nice story and no surprise to me, but I don’t know how anyone can like the Texans here with Andre Johnson out. Their secondary is better but still suspect until they can get someone on the other corner who can play. Big game for Reggie Wayne. Freddie Keiaho should play and make an impact on defense. I can’t wait to see how Jacoby Jones plays in place of AJ. Jones is more of a perimeter guy, but he can be a big player there.

MIA at NYJ - Jets
The Dolphins run defense hasn’t been good and now they’re without Zach Thomas. Both teams are 0-2, and the Jets are the better team. Cam Cameron wants to run more, but the Jets run defense is improved form last season’s performance. I like Leon Washington here to have a big game.

MIN at KC - Chiefs
Back at arrowhead, with god knows who playing quarterback for the Vikings. KC gets Jared Allen back early from a suspension and LJ gets the 40 carries he wants against the stout Vikings front four. It won’t be pretty, but with Darren Sharper banged up, the Chiefs pass their way to their first win.

SD at GB - Chargers
For Green Bay, some minor injuries on defense are mounting, and this is a playmaking unit that doesn’t do a lot of interesting things scheme-wise so they need their guys at full strength. They have a solid front four and linebackers who can help limit LT and Gates. So watch for the Chargers WR to make themselves known this week against a banged up Packers secondary. Vincent Jackson has 80 yards and a score against the nicked up Packers CBs.

SF at PIT - Steelers
Alex Smith is still a better QB outside the pocket than inside, and he’ll be running from the Steelers blitz this week. But they way they rush the passer, there might not be room for Smith to get free. The Steelers run defense isn’t as good as its been in years past, so Frank Gore is still a good play here. But the 2-0 Niners arent in the same class as the 2-0 Steelers.

STL at TB - Bucs
It’s all about the Bucs pass rush in this game. They can get pressure on Marc Bulger. Tampa’s defense has turned over the past few years into a better unit against the run and not as good against the pass. So far this season, they’ve had a poor pass rush but will be up against an offensive line filled with injuries and guys playing out of position. The Rams moved Alex Barron from RT to LT but got burned on the RT side as they overcompensated protection to Barron’s side last week. And in their first two games, they’ve blown 13-7 first half leads in each. They are 0-2 and both losses have been at home, when they usually rack up the wins. So that’s an indication to me that this just isn’t their year. Michael Clayton is earning more playing time for Tampa and could have a nice game here with Ike Hilliard hurt.

CIN at SEA - Bengals
The Bengals pass protect very well, and have enough continuity on offense to play on the road in a hostile environment like Seattle owns. Glenn Holt played well filling in at the #3 WR spot for Cincy last week, and should continue to get snaps there with Chris Henry stealing cars. And the way the Bengals defense played last week, anyone on the Seahawks is a good play. I like Nate Burleson to score for the second straight week for his run after the catch/punt abilities. Cincy can’t tackle, but I think they’re offense will pull this one out.

CLE at OAK - Raiders
This year’s Oakland defense is proving that last year’s success was partly a mirage due to their lack of offense (and thus teams playing conservative against them). Derek Anderson coming off a career-best game, but one that stilled showed his flaws as a QB. He was barely pressured by the Bengals, who played mostly vanilla coverages behind a four man rush. On the few plays Anderson was pressured, he made poor decisions - often throwing in to traffic or largely missing his targets. Even without pressure, Anderson showed that he locks on to his primary receiver too much and will force throws there no matter what. Braylon Edwards made three key, circus-type catches in last week’s win that most receivers probably wouldn’t make. Without those three plays, the Browns likely lose. Anderson’s success last week was largely due to the incredible playmakers he’s surrounded by and the lack of pressure applied by the Bengals. With a week to prepare, I’d suspect any NFL team could see these flaws and find ways to exploit them. We’ll see if these Raiders are in fact a real NFL team.

JAX at DEN - Broncos
The Jags suck and John Henderson hasn’t practiced all week because of a concussion. The Broncos seem to have a little fate on their side this season. Javon Walker will again face a tough CB matchup so Brandon Marshall needs to make some plays here. The Broncos defense is still a better run stopping unit than they are against the pass, and that matches them up nicely to roll over the Jags.

CAR at ATL - Panthers
NFL Network’s playbook showed a nice example of how the Falcons may cover Steve Smith not with DeAngelo Hall, but use Hall 1 on 1 against the Panthers’ #2 WR and roll bracket coverage over to Smith’s side. That’s the only way to stop an offense as one dimenssional as the Panthers’, but the Falcons offense isn’t up to balance the effort out just yet. Someone else for Carolina will have to step up, and since Rod Coleman still isn’t ready to play for Atlanta, I’m saying DeShaun Foster has a big game.

NYG at WAS - Redskins
Chris Cooley could have 150 yards if Mattias Kiwanuka is covering him in this game. Mike Sellers scores a TD as well. The Giants are starting rookie Aaron Ross, which should help their struggling defense. But the strong ground game of Washington rolls over this mixed up Giants unit.

DAL at CHI - Cowboys
Offense vs Defense here, but on the other side, the Cowboys pressure defense matches up well against Chicago’s offense. Wade Phillips acknowledged how great Marion Barber is playing, but still backs Jones even though Barber is clearly the goal line back. Both are productive but its Barber who is better suited to play against this Bears defense.

TEN at NO - Saints
You’ve got to throw the ball downfield to beat the Saints, and that just isn’t the Titans’ game. New Orleans’ offense faces one of the best front seven units in the NFL but I think they’ll rally at home and on Monday night to avoid going 0-3. Duece McAllister has to start running with a more physical style again.

NFL | 2007 | Week Two Picks

Football, General | No Comments
-posted September 16, 2007 at 10:25 am

Lots of consensus on who will win a majority of the week two matchups. And while that doesn’t necessarily mean they will, picking against them this early in the season isn’t a smart move unless you’re certain there’s a winner in the underdog. Tennessee, for example, looks like they’ll be able to keep the score close against Indy. But that doesn’t mean I’m picking them to win. I went against the champs last week, and I don’t think I’m going to again for a few months.

ATL at JAX - Jags
The Falcons defense seems to rise and fall on the health of DT Rod Coleman, and right now, it’s down. A lot of people are taking the Jags as their survivor pick this week. I don’t think either of these teams are that strong.

BUF at PIT - Steelers
My survivor pick. The Bills defense was young and small going into this season, but now they’ve lost two members of their secondary and a couple of linebackers. And JP Losman is still the second best QB on his team. This look like another 20 attempt game for Big Ben, so Willie Parker should be the most productive fantasy player.

CIN at CLE - Bengals
Leigh Bodden usually does a good job on Chad Johnson and the Bengals will have to protect Carson Palmer with a banged up offensive line. The Browns defense can play a little bit, and I’m just waiting for them to start playing like a .500 team. But not until Brady gets involved. 100 yards for TJ.

GB at NYG - Packers
Went GB here, as many seem to be, because of the QB issue. But even if Manning plays, the Giants defense still has a long way to go and Green Bay should be able to score their first offensive TDs of the season against them. The Packers defense, meanwhile, looks like a top 10 unit this season. They’ve upgraded at the safety position, and have a strong front seven, led by DEs Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins. In particular, Jenkins has been a force. They should both feast on the Giants’ OL, no matter who’s behind it. If you have Brandon Jackson, trade him after this game.

HOU at CAR - Panthers
I mentioned last week how much I like this Texans team, but I think this matchup is just too tough for them. Jake Delhomme was a star last week and the Texans leave CB Dunta Robinson matched up in single coverage against the best WRs too often. Steve Smith need bracket coverage, and the Texans probably won’t do it. Travelle Wharton is an underrated LT who can limit Mario Williams.

IND at TEN - Colts
The Saints paid the price for not keeping two safeties deep on every play. It seemed on the few instances they played single saftey coverage, Manning was burning them for it. You just can’t give them even one chance to take advantage of you like that. Let Addai run for 6 yards all the way down to the 10 if you have to, but don’t let Wayne or Harrison get singled up on the outside or it’ll be over in 5 plays. The Titans in the past have kept their safeties back and played a physical run defense with their front seven. They are loading up on DL with the trade for Bryce Fisher and will continue to be an underrated defense under Jeff Fisher. WLB Freddie Keiaho is a big part of this system, but even if he doesn’t play, the Colts should be able to win this game 20-13.

NO at TB - Saints
New Orleans let a lot of people down last week, namely themselves. They got outplayed, outcoached, and outdesired. Luckily, they get a once again nonexplosive Bucs team to trade 12 play field goal drives with. The Saints defense has to learn to play more cover two and stop the run with their front seven. The Bucs defense was solid against Seattle, but they no longer can play the matchup game player by player that Sean Payton will force them into. Either Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush will break a long one.

SF at STL - 49ers
Picking the Rams at home, as I did last week vs Carolina, is never a bad idea. But the injuries they’ve suffered on the offensive and defensive line so far this season are devastating. I thought Steven Jackson would be able to run on the Panthers’ small LBs last week, but as it turned out, he didn’t get past the line of scrimmage because of all the issues on the line. The Niners new secondary matches up well against Scott Linehan’s offense.

DAL at MIA - Cowboys
Dallas needs to work out their assignment issues in their secondary, as their pass rush wasn’t as effective as I think they expected it to be against the Giants. The absence of Terrence Newman last week wasn’t as bad as many think it was; the unit as a whole just wasn’t that good and they still don’t have a center field type free safety who can make plays for them in the backfield. Their offense, on the other hand, looks strong (even though they were playing against a confused Giants defense). Miami still can’t block anyone, and the new Dallas pass rush will get the results it expects to get. Jesse Chatman saw a lot of time in the backfield for the Fish last week. He even lined up as the HB in two back sets with Ronnie Brown. The loss of Jason Ferguson up the middle will hurt Dallas in the future, but probably not against this Miami offense as it is right now. When oh when will Marion Barber be a 25 carry a game back he deserves to be? When that happens, he ends up a top 3 fantasy back.

MIN at DET - Lions
Offense vs defense, but in this case, on the other side of the ball the Lions defense isn’t as bad as the Vikings offense. At least it shouldn’t be. A stong perimeter pass rush can disrupt a Martz offenese, but the Vikes don’t have that. Charles Johnson will continue his ROY campaign cause the Lions will probably run 15 times for 26 yards in this game.

SEA at ARZ - Seahawks
Shaun Alexander sure looked healthy last week, and that line isn’t as bad as was feared.

KC at CHI - Bears
Adam Archuleta was brought in to reunite with Lovie Smith, the man behind his early career success in St. Louis. With Mike Brown out, again, Archuleta will be counted on as the Bob Sanders / John Lynch playmaker for this defense. They’re still thin at DL, but the Chiefs are no threat to exploit that.

NYJ at BAL - Ravens


OAK at DEN - Broncos
This Denver defense finally has a chance to be a great one, if they can keep pressure on the QB. Two sacks of Losman last week were a good start, but neither came from a lineman. If Simeon Rice can play close to 100%, he’ll be the difference maker. The Raiders are a team that could easily go 8-8 this season. I love Ronald Curry but this week he’ll likely even out those gaudy numbers he put up against the Lions. Curry’s still a top fantasy receiver for this season. I’m looking to see how real the Cutler to Walker connection is in this game. Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best corners in the game, and he helped limit Roy Williams to just 20 yards last week. Brandon Marshall should benefit from today’s matchup as a result.

SD at NE - Patriots
Tom Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly, the Chargers pass rush - that they rely on so much - won’t be able to make a steady impact on the Pats passing game. They’ll manage it better than the Jets did last week, who blitzed Brady play after play to little avail. I wouldn’t expect much offense from this game, unless the Chargers want to gamble more than they should on defense.

WAS at PHI - Eagles
Last week’s loss to Green Bay speaks more about how strong the Packers defense is this season than anything else. The Eagles were just out of sorts and faced a tough matchup in their first week out. The Redskins defense is much improved as well, but the Eagles have much more balance - provided they can get their special teams in order. The loss of Jon Jansen will take Washington some time to adjust to. Given the talent in Washington’s secondary, Brian Westbrook will probably end up the star of this game.

Saints opener, and Duece McAllister’s health

Week Recap, New Orleans, Football, General | No Comments
-posted September 7, 2007 at 7:52 am

Well done New Orleans.

If you started the game with a script, I recommend scripting the entire game next time.

For the first quarter, you moved the ball on offense, showing patience and creativity. You played cover 2 on defense, something most didn’t think you were going to do but said you needed to do with Jason David at right corner back.

It was basically a show of two defenses not letting the other team’s offense get anything easy down the field. Two deep safeties, keep everything underneath. And we’ve learned that if you don’t play Patriot-style games on defense - disguising and rolling strange coverages - the only other way to slow down Manning’s offense is to play that deep cover 2 the Saints opened the game with.

But, for some reason they stopped. Or just started mixing in the kinds of 3 deep and quarters coverages that will get you beat.

As for Duece McAllister, well, he’s healthy. And that’s not really a good thing. He’s dancing around tacklers again, instead of running through them like he did last year when he wasn’t 100%. And he keeps trying to run like Reggie Bush it’s not going to work for him, this healthy thing. Even Reggie Bush can’t make everyone on the field miss like he thinks he can. Run forward boys.

NFL | 2007 | Week One Picks

Football, General | No Comments
-posted September 6, 2007 at 4:01 pm

• IND at NO - New Orleans
  Statement game for one of the top 3 teams in the NFC. The Saints are hungry, after just missing a shot at the Super Bowl last year. They’ve upgraded all the areas they needed to address in the offseason, and they did so without spending a lot of extra cash. There will be very little defense in this game, just what we all want to see. And if there is some defense played, it’ll be on the side of the Saints - who have one of the best DE tandems in the league to go up against the Colts OL. Indy also has a young secondary that will be over matched by the Saints weapons on offense. Don’t think for a second Marques Colston is the only receiver on this team who can play. He’s just a possession role player. The Saints are filled with role players who do their job well. And that’s what makes them, together, such a good team, and my early pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
• ATL at MIN - Atlanta
  We know about the questions the Vikings have on offense, but Atlanta is working their way through a new offense and will be up against an experienced and stout defense this week. This could be a preseason-like 10-7 game. John Abraham is healthy, and when he his he’s a 3 sack a game kind of player. First round pick Jamal Anderson will play on the other end spot, and those two should be in the Tarvaris Jackson’s face all day. The Vikings’ defense forced 14 turnovers and scored four TDs during the preseason, but this is the new Joey Harrington!
• CAR at STL - St Louis
  Tough choice here, the Rams have a questions on defense, the Panthers have questions on offense. These strength vs strength / weakness vs weakness games always are entertaining. From PFW, “The Panthers are 2-3 in season openers under John Fox, with three of the games decided by three points or less.” Carolina is young and undersized at linebacker, should they may have problems with Scott Linehan’s the power running game. No team runs straight up the middle like the Rams do, but the Panthers held Steven Jackson was held to a season-low 27 rushing yards last season. St Louis’ defensive front seven is improved, their only questions are in the secondary. Luckily for them, the only real threat the Panthers have right now is Steve Smith. Keary Colbert is expected to start at the #2 WR spot for Carolina.
• DEN at BUF - Denver
  Buffalo’s defense is small and fast, so they may hold up against a similarly undersized Broncos’ offensive line better than some would think. The Broncos still struggle generating a pass rush, but JP Losman is the kind of QB who is always playing like he’s under more pressure than he actually is. Buffalo has a lot of new players on offense, and they’ll struggle their first game out against one of the best teams in the AFC.
• KC at HOU - Houston
  The Texans will begin their breakout 2007 season against what I think will be one of the worst teams in the AFC. With this one at Reliant Stadium, it could be a blowout. Yes, really. These Texans are going to be competitive.
• MIA at WAS - Washington
  Another new offense making its debut (Miami), the Redskins are returning a lot of players and coaches and should be able to take advantage of the Miami while the Dolphins are still working out the wrinkles. Jason Campbell looked strong in the preseason. But how bad was Washington’s defense last season? PFW reported their 12 turnovers forced was the fewest in NFL history and their 19 sacks was fewest in the NFL, six less than the Colts, which had the second fewest. Ugh. No place to go but up.
• NE at NYJ - Jets
  Since 2003, the Jets have gone 1-8 vs. the Pats (including the playoffs), and are just 1-7-1 against the spread. But these 2007 Jets have been bringing in players this week that were just cut by the Patriots. They are also returning a lot of players on both sides of the ball. I like the improved Jets defense to make the difference against the over-hyped Patriot offense and Rodney Harrison-less defense. New York’s receiving corps, a bit of a weak spot going into last season, is now a strength with the return of coles and Cotchery, the resurgence of Justin McCareins, and the emergence of rookie speedster Chansi Stuckey.
• PHI at GB - Philly
  Green Bay’s defense put up good numbers last year, but I’m not sold on them yet. This one could be another blowout possibility. The Packers real strength on defense (DEs) is also a strength on the Eagles offense (OTs). Philly will be able to open things up against a shallow Green Bay secondary and show off their new, healthy passing game. Kevin Curtis is a guy who’s flying far under the fantasy radar, but he’s a very good receiver who could thrive in this kind of an offense. He’s fast and reliable; the Eagles just need to get him running in space and he can be a Steve Smith-type short and deep threat. This Eagles defense could be their best one of Andy Reid’s era while the Packers offense has looked out of sorts all summer.
• PIT at CLE - Pittsburgh
  I just can’t tell if the Browns are ready to step their game up. They’ve showed signs this preseason that their defense is ready to become a force, but their secondary still has questions. And now their top corner has off field issues to deal with. There’s little doubt that the Steelers will win, but I have a feeling the Browns may make it close. Don’t worry about Willie McGinest being out for Cleveland. His best days are in his past. Antwan Peek has been strong for the Browns this preseason on the strong side, and Kamerion Wimbley is about to become one of the best pass rushing LBs in the league - if he already isn’t. A couple of stats from PFW: PIT has won seven straight vs. CLE. CLE has begun every season with a home game, posting a 1-7 record in home openers.
• TEN at JAX - Tennessee
  The Titans beat the Jags last season in the lone game Vince Young played in, but Tennessee had only 98 yards of offense and benefited from 4 Jacksonville turnovers. The Jags are counting on Dennis Northcut to provide #1 WR services, and while he isn’t a bad player, the lack of NFL talent the Jags have at this position is laughable. Vince Young played a lot this summer, and he looks like he’s been working on his throwing accuracy. He’s been sharp. Bo Scaife catches 15 passes and the Titans squeak this one out.
• CHI at SD - San Diego
  The Bears are playing their cover 2 defense with two run stopping safeties and a thin group of DTs; Tommie Harris isn’t 100% yet.
• DET at OAK - Oakland
  Josh McCown will get his chance to plant a flag into the starting QB position against a weak Detroit defense. Lane Kiffin’s new offense will be successful in the NFL and the Raiders have talent on that side of the ball to be a good team this year. 8-8 is not out of the question. Ron Curry is a star waiting to breakout - if his health can remain with him - and LaMont Jordan is an explosive straight ahead runner that many have seemed to have forgotten about. The Lions have quite an offense as well, but Mike Martz’s refusal to protect the quarterback will hurt him against this Raiders defense.
• TB at SEA - Seattle
  The Bucs barely left the state of Florida with their preseason schedule and now have to travel to the furthest NFL outpost in the West. All the free agent signings in the world can’t change the fact that Carnell Williams is a boom or bust running back who isn’t very effective in a offense that needs 4 yards a play each down. Tampa Bay finally addresses their declining defense this offseason, but the rewards won’t immediately be felt. Seattle comes in with a healthy Matt Hasselback and Shawn Alexander, as well as 4 great receiving options at WR.
• NYG at DAL - Dallas
  Yes, Eli has look good in the preseason. He was checking the ball down well, stepping into his throws, and hitting more receivers in stride than I’ve seen in the past. But this improved Cowboys’ pass rush will test the new Eli Manning early. The Giants were blown out of their first preseason game because of mental errors committed on defense, namely new strong side linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka (a converted DE). There’s a lot new on that side of the ball and the Cowboys’ potent weapons will take advantage of it. If Terry Glenn can’t play, Patrick Crayton is a great substitute at the #2 position behind OWens and Witten.
• BAL at CIN - Cincinnati
  The Bengals are is 4-1 in its last five games vs. the Ravens and have scored 123 points in those 5 games (24.6 avg). The Cincy offense looks like it’s ready to put things back together after a down 2006 campaign. Rudi Johnson has been running strong, and the WR duo of CJ and TJ had strong summer’s as well. If the Bengals defense can keep Willis McGahee from breaking too many long runs, they’ss be able to score enough to win this opener. The Ravens have lost their last four prime time road games, and have started five of its last six seasons on the road (1-4 so far).
• ARZ at SF - Arizona
  The 49ers could have been in the playoffs last season if they hadn’t lost both games against Arizona. Both teams enter 2007 much improved, and now make up one half of what is now a suddenly strong NFC West division. The 49ers have improved their defense, but they still lack a dominant from 3 in their 3-4 scheme and will struggle to pressure the quarterback. San Fran’s CB duo will matchup against Arizona’s WR duo, but the Cards new offense under Ken Wisenhunt should be able to run against the Niners. Expect a couple fancy plays from Widenhunt as the Cards open up their new offense on Monday night football. Two opposing trends in this game: ARZ has won the last four matchups between the clubs but since 2003, ARZ is 5-27 on the road.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Detroit Lions

NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Detroit, Football, General | No Comments
-posted August 20, 2007 at 8:43 pm

Rod Marinellii - second season with Lions
Mike Martz - second season with Lions

Background:
10 wins, Jon? Unlikely. Top team in total offensive passing yards? Very likely.

In 2006, the New Orleans Saints averaged 281.4 yards passing per game; 1st in the NFL ahead of the Colts’ 269.2. The Saints had 183 drives last year; 35 more than the Colts’ 148. So really, the Colts had the best statistical passing offense per game, averaging just over 29 passing yards per drive. The Saints averaged 24.6 passing yards per drive.

What does this have to do with Detroit? Being the best passing offense in the NFL doesn’t always translate into being the top fantasy football passing team. Like the 2006 Saints, you need to not only have the weapons on offense, but also a reason to use them. This Detroit offense, led by Mike Martz’s now famous, greatest show on turf game plan, eats up garbage time yardage like few other monsters are able.

Philosophy:
We know Martz. We know his system. No coach loves to use four wide receivers like he does. And the Lions now have four who fit this system perfectly.

Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will end up being a better duo than Issac Bruce and Torry Holt were with Martz. I personally think Calvin Johnson is the best receiving prospect to come out of college, ever. He quite literally has every tool a receiver could want, the intelligence to know how to use them, and a work ethic as hardworking as his attitude is humble.

Those two towering WRs will work the sidelines and run those 20 yard deep-in routes while Mike Furrey will assume a role he’s better suited for, the slot; with former Ram Shaun McDonald making an impact on the field as the commonly used fourth receiver.

According to Football Prospectus, last year’s Lions used 3 WR sets 61% of the time, fourth most in the league. They used 4 WR 22% of the time, second most in the NFL.

They ran the ball the fewest of all 32 NFL teams (31%) and even with the lead they threw the ball more in that situation than any other team (63%). And here’s a great example from FO of the role that Mike Furrey played last year, and why he’ll still likely be a key player in the 2007 season.

On first down, the Lions threw to Roy Williams 50 percent more often than Mike Furrey. On second and third down, they threw to Furrey 30 percent more often than Williams.

The Lions struggled last year in the red zone (-24.5% DVOA, 26th) and on third downs (-5.6%, 21st) but both numbers should improve dramatically with Calvin Johnson’s arrival and Furrey’s move to the slot.

Players:
For three straight years, 1999, 2000, and 2001, the Rams were the #1 offense in the NFL. They threw for 4580, 5492, 4903 yards in those three seasons.

Last years Lions threw for 4208, and considering the awful offensive line play they receive and lack of anything half as good as Marshall Faulk at running back, that’s pretty good. The 1999 Rams improved their yardage output 20% the following year, their second under Martz. So as the Lions enter their second year in Martz’s system, a 20% isn’t likely, but a considerable improvement - one closer to 10-15% - is still a significant one that can be expected.

That’s considering the addition of Johnson and improved their offensive line to a serviceable level, to go with the general improvement that goes with having another year in the same system.

20% added on to Kitna’s 2006 numbers project him to 5049 yards for 2007. Yikes. A 10% improvement ends Kitna’s season at 4628, which would have still led all quarterbacks in passing over the last two years. Of course, this is Jon Kitna. But remember that Kurt Warner is not really a top tier QB talent either. He never was. But he excelled in this system and there’s no reason to believe that Kitna can’t just because we all know he’s Jon Kitna.

Roy Williams saw 151 passes last year and caught 54% of them. Furrey saw 146 and converted 67%. Az Hakim saw the third most passes, but just 27. Corey Bradford saw 25. So if you take that top 4, you get a combined 349 pass attempts. Kitna threw 596 passes last year, but broken down by FO, 124 went to running backs, 59 to tight ends, and 377 to wide receivers. That adds up to 560 passing attempts (the discrepancy is likely due to throw aways, etc). So out of 560 real targets, 67.3% went to receivers. If you carry over that 377 to 2007, I predict Roy Williams will likely see 140, Calvin Johnson 110, Furrey 80, leaving 40 for the rest of the team.

Furrey’s 67% catch rate translates into 53 receptions for 2007, leaving him with a probably just under 600 yards for the season.

Roy Williams raised his catch rate from the mid 40’s % to 54% last season. Considering he’ll improve slightly based on the talent around him, his 2006 numbers should translate equally to this season when you account for the drop in passes he’ll likely to receive.

For Calvin Johnson, a 65 catch 1100 yard season is a likely starting point for projecting his rookie season. Torry Holt’s first season in St Louis was also Martz’s first as OC. Holt had 52 catches for 788 yards (15.2 avg) and 6 TD that year. Agreeing that CJ is already a better receiver than Holt was then, 60-65 catches makes for a bottom floor projection for CJ considering Holt’s numbers. A 55% catch rate on the 110 targets I expect CJ to receive, give him a 60.5 projected catch season as well. At 16 ypc, that’s a 968 yard season. At 18 ypc, 1089 yards.

When Anquan Boldin caught 101 balls for 1377 yards his rookie season, he averaged 13.6 ypc. Boldin is more of a possession receiver, so his ypc numbers will be lower than CJ’s. I bring up Boldin to make a point that rookie receivers on teams with bad defenses can really put up good numbers. Boldin made the transition to the pro game so well because he’s a former QB who approached the game like a pro since his FSU days. CJ has the intelligence to make an impact in the NFL right away too. And I personally feel that his 2007 numbers will guarantee at least a 1200 yard season. Randy Moss had 69 catches for 1313 his rookie year. CJ’s game in right in the middle of Boldin and Moss, so I’m going with 75 catches for 16.5 yards per catch giving him a 1237 season.

Another football redesign

Football, General | No Comments
-posted August 20, 2007 at 9:40 am

This time, a minor one, by pro football weekly.
More work for the RSS queue, as they’ve incorporated their headlines into an RSS format. Cheers.